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2022's "TINA" Trade

Posted June 06, 2022

Matt Insley

By Matt Insley

2022's "TINA" Trade

Last week, South African mining company Gold Fields announced plans to buy Canadian firm Yamana Gold for an all-stock deal valued at $6.7 billion. 

Screen Shot 2022-06-06 at 9.15.41 AM

Gold Fields CEO Chris Griffith says: “What we wanted to do was grow our pipeline, bulk up our South American operations and get a presence in Canada.” Diversification is key since 60% of Gold Fields’ mining operations are currently located in South Africa. 

“Yamana is focused on the Americas, with large sites at Malartic in Quebec and El Peñón in Chile,” says a Financial Times article. 

Although Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) closed the week up almost 9%, Gold Fields (NYSE: GFI) has been in a slump (down over 4% today alone). Many analysts believe GFI would be paying a premium for the acquisition and that AUY shares are overvalued. 

Finally, it’s important to note the merger isn’t a done deal – shareholders must still approve it. But when it comes to hedging your portfolio, read on for what is a done deal… 

Send your opinions to, TheRundownFeedback@StPaulResearch.com

Your Rundown for Monday, June 6, 2022...

TINA: Commodities

The “there is no alternative” trade for 2022? Commodities.

“While confusing macro risks [persist]... now is not the time to alter commodity outperformance expectations,” says Jeffrey Currie, head of Goldman Sachs commodities research. 

“As we have often shown before, commodities are the only consistent hedge against unexpected inflation.” 

Plus, history proves when the Fed responds to inflation with interest-rate hikes, commodities prevail… Exhibit7_540.png

Inline with the chart, Goldman predicts a 21% return for the iShares S&P GSCI Commodity Indexed-Trust ETF (GSG) over the next 12 months. 

And with U.S. central bankers endorsing significant rate hikes in June and July, there’s still time for investors to benefit from commodities’ ascendancy. 

“Even a small commodity allocation can have a significant impact on a portfolio’s performance during unexpected inflationary episodes,” Goldman concludes. 

Market Rundown for Monday, June 6, 2022

S&P 500 futures are up 45 points to 4,150.

Oil’s nominally in the green – still up to $119.04 for a barrel of WTI. 

Gold is up $7.50 per ounce to $1,857.40. 

And Bitcoin’s finally starting to bounce; the flagship crypto is up about 5% to $31,415. 

Send your comments and questions to, TheRundownFeedback@StPaulResearch.com

We hope your week’s off to a great start, and check back for more mid-week. 

For The Rundown,

Matt Insley

Matt Insley
Publisher, The Rundown
TheRundownFeedback@StPaulResearch.com

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