On a quiet cul-de-sac in suburban Ohio, a family sits crowded into a house they outgrew years ago, staring at Zillow listings they know they can’t afford.

The father recently turned down a promotion in another state — not because he didn’t want it, but because selling their home and moving would put them in the crosshairs of today’s mortgage and housing crisis.

This story, while fictitious, isn’t unique.

In fact, it’s become representative of a growing American reality: fewer people are moving, fewer are taking risks and the “land of opportunity” is starting to feel more like a waiting room.

Decades ago, Americans prided themselves on their willingness to chase opportunity, packing up lives for a better job, a bigger house or new venture.

The numbers now paint a different picture. Only 7.8% of Americans moved in 2023, the lowest rate since 1948 — a stunning statistic for a country built on reinvention.

Many are locked in by what economists call “golden handcuffs”: low mortgage rates, job benefits or two incomes that are impossible to replicate elsewhere.

High prices and a shortage of homes have turned moving for personal progress to a high-stakes economic gamble.

And the hard data confirms the sense that upward mobility is stalling out.

Your Rundown for Monday, August 18, 2025...

Data Confirms the Hard Truth

Recent reports reveal a cooling U.S. labor market, with job growth in July 2025 dropping to just 73,000 — well below the 150,000 monthly jobs economists say are necessary to keep pace with population growth and to sustain a stable employment rate.

To wit, the unemployment rate has nudged up to 4.2%, making it even tougher for workers to climb the career ladder.

As well, the much-lauded American dream of each generation out-earning the last is now a coin toss…

• While over 90% of kids born in the 1940s did better than their parents, children born in the 1980s have just a 50-50 shot.

As for wage growth, it’s slowed overall, but high earners are once again seeing their pay rise faster than most other groups.

Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta show that in 2025, the strongest wage growth is concentrated in professions like engineering, legal and marketing — fields that already pay above average.

Meanwhile, small businesses are struggling to lure talent since workers won’t (or can’t) move, and those who stay put often accept lower pay and fewer prospects.

And while companies face shrinking pools of fresh talent and potentially stagnant profits, first-time homebuyers are blocked from the market:

Source: Creative Planning, @CharlieBilello

The takeaway: The odds of climbing the economic ladder in America have become steeper, and the barriers — career mobility, stagnating wages, housing costs — aren’t going away on their own.

Even for those who are skeptical of gloom-and-doom narratives, the numbers don’t lie: upward mobility, long a signature of our national identity, is on life support.

Market Rundown for Monday, August 18, 2025

S&P 500 futures are down 0.12% to 6,465.

Oil is up 0.50% to $63.10 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up 0.30% to $3,393.50 per ounce.

Bitcoin, at the time of writing, is down over 2% to $115,195.