Buck Sexton doesn’t just analyze world events — he’s been in the rooms where American foreign policy is shaped.

As co-host of The Clay Travis & Buck Sexton Show and a former CIA officer who spent years briefing senior national-security officials, Buck has a uniquely hard-edged view of how global flashpoints actually evolve.

That framing matters right now, especially because Venezuela has abruptly shifted from “contained chaos” to a live geopolitical test with oil at the center of the blast radius. With Nicolas Maduro’s reported capture and Delcy Rodríguez stepping into an interim presidency, the energy and security implications are no longer theoretical.

In this exclusive Money & Power essay from late November, Buck breaks down the doctrine now steering Trump’s second-term foreign policy — how Washington thinks about leverage, deterrence and the strategic value of energy in a world that’s re-arming fast.

Read on for Buck’s inside account of the thinking that’s driving policy decisions right now. And why events like Venezuela can go from “regional drama” to “global hotspot” quicker than most anyone expects.

Your Rundown for Monday, January 5, 2026...

Venezuela: The Geopolitical Pressure Cooker

“This is a 1939 moment — or hopefully, a 1981 moment.”

That’s what Secretary of War Pete Hegseth told senior military leaders in a recent closed-door address.

I’ve known Pete for almost twenty years. When he draws parallels to the gathering storms of World War II — or Reagan’s hard pivot against the Soviets — he’s not being dramatic.

He’s signaling where the wind’s blowing inside Trump’s newly-minted War Department.

After years of hesitation, we’re rebuilding the hard power that once defeated the Axis and later broke the Soviet Union — more munitions, deeper stockpiles and a military designed to move first, not react late.

Hegseth’s deliberate return to the historic title “Secretary of War,” and the pivot toward a more wartime footing for our military-industrial base, mark the sharpest rhetorical and strategic escalation since 9/11 and the early days of the Global War on Terror.

Back then, Colin Powell and the Bush-era foreign-policy class talked about “you break it, you buy it.”

They saw war as something to manage over long timeframes — cautious, bureaucratic, endlessly burdened with “nation-building.”

Trump doesn’t think that way. He doesn’t sit around worrying about what happens if you break a hostile regime. If it’s a threat, he’ll break it — and move on.

That’s the fundamental difference. Trump firmly believes “break it — and let America lead again.”

Trump’s doctrine, then, is simple: Secure American peace through overwhelming strength. And in 2026, that strength will be tested, intertwined with the global oil supply.

Traders see the danger already. Implied volatility in 2026 Brent oil futures jumped 40% in 10 days in June 2025. The storm is gathering force.

Now, let’s break down the one hotspot every investor and policymaker should be watching…

The U.S. naval presence in the Caribbean — an aircraft carrier, submarines, destroyers, amphibious ships and roughly 15,000 U.S. personnel — is the largest we’ve seen there since the 1989 Panama invasion.

Since September, U.S. strikes have sunk more than twenty drug-running boats off the Venezuelan coast, killing over eighty traffickers.

Hegseth has personally posted some of the footage to X with the caption: “No cartel terrorist stands a chance against the American military.” Knowing Pete, that’s not bluster. That’s a warning.

And here’s what the public doesn’t see: The boats being hit aren’t random cocaine rafts.

People I talk to inside the administration — military planners, intel guys — keep pointing to the same detail:

These vessels trace back to Venezuela’s Paria Peninsula, a stronghold for President Nicolas Maduro loyalists where elements of the notorious Cartel de los Soles are believed to supervise narco-exports.

Officially, the mission is counter–narco-terror. But anyone paying attention knows there’s more going on: Counter-cartel warfare aimed straight at the regime’s financial lifeline.

Calling out the regime-linked gang Tren de Aragua as a terrorist organization — and tying Maduro’s inner circle to them — gives Trump’s War Department the same counterterror tools once used to crush Al Qaeda money men.

That means asset freezes. Sanctions with teeth.

The drug routes once managed by Tren de Aragua are now smashed. Cartels are choking on more dangerous reroutes through Colombia and Mexico, sparking new conflicts with ELN guerrillas and Sinaloa cartel operatives.

As a result, interceptions in both the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific are up 40% since October. U.S. fentanyl fighters are calling it a rare win.

Consider, too, that CIA covert authorities have reportedly been activated inside Venezuela. A reported $50 million reward hangs over Maduro’s head. The regime is bleeding cash. Senior insiders are defecting.

Even mainstream outlets admit Maduro has floated backchannel overtures to Washington — offering stakes in oil fields and revenue diversions — in exchange for sanctions relief.

As for Trump’s camp, nobody’s buying it.

Marco Rubio — son of Cuban exiles and now Secretary of State — thundered late last year: “Maduro is a fugitive from American justice.” That’s the consensus inside Trump’s national-security orbit.

And here’s where 2026 could really reach a boiling point…

As elections loom, the power outages and breadlines in Caracas are getting worse. A palace coup, a military fracture or a U.S.-aligned interim government under an opposition leader becomes not just plausible — but likely.

U.S. allies have signaled that Venezuela’s future lies in full privatization, Western capital and a complete break from Chavista economics.

If Venezuela finally collapses, the global oil map shifts overnight since Venezuela has more proven oil reserves than any country on Earth.

But don’t forget the second domino: Cuba.

Havana survives on tens of thousands of barrels a day of Venezuelan subsidized oil — down from peak Chavez-era shipments of 100,000 barrels per day (b/d).

Analysts at the Cuba Siglo 21 think tank have warned for months that if Venezuela’s oil subsidy evaporates, Cuba’s economic crisis will plunge into full collapse in 2026: deeper blackouts, mass protests and possibly a million-person exodus.

And here’s a quiet tell: Elements of the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment — the Night Stalkers who flew the Bin Laden raid — have deployed into the Caribbean theater.

That’s not drug-war PR. That’s preparation for precision missions.

Rubio's ideology shines here: Topple Maduro, starve Havana and Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s house of cards tumbles. It’s Operation Mongoose — the 1960s CIA campaign to unseat Fidel Castro — all over again… but with drones!

Still, risks abound — Russia or China propping up Fidel's heirs? — but the prize is a democratized Caribbean, minus two U.S. adversaries.

In other words, the Caribbean’s strategic map gets redrawn… And the U.S. suddenly holds the red pen.

For investors, this is a jackpot. With the world’s largest oil reserves — over an estimated 300 billion barrels — if Maduro falls, Venezuela’s crude comes back online.

Sanctions already let Chevron pump about 200,000 bpd, but a full thaw would unleash U.S. majors, privatized fields and Gulf Coast refineries.

Output could double to 2 million bpd by 2028, cutting OPEC+ dependence and keeping WTI steady near $75. Energy names like Exxon and Halliburton would surge.

And if Cuba opens next? Tourism, real estate and agriculture all follow. Trump’s “maximum pressure” isn’t just policy — it leads to a profitable and powerful America.

Here’s the bottom line…

Venezuela is a collapsing dictatorship with the world’s largest proven oil reserves.

President Trump and Secretary of War Hegseth understand this. Their strategy is simple: Deter threats early, strengthen America’s military edge, expand domestic energy and keep adversaries guessing.

It’s working. So far.

But 2026 is shaping up to be the year when the world will be forced to reckon with a hard reality:

Oil is still the backbone of global power. And America is at its strongest when it leads, not when it waits on the sidelines.

If we get this right, the U.S. emerges as the indispensable energy superpower — economically, militarily, strategically.

If we get it wrong, the global markets will remind everyone, brutally, that peace is built on strength… And energy is, as ever, the trump card nations go to war over.

Market Rundown for Monday, January 5, 2026

S&P 500 futures are up 0.30% to 6,920.

Oil’s up 0.85% to $57.80 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up 2% to $4,420 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up 1.60% to $92,750.