Not long ago, the idea of the United States “taking” Greenland sounded ridiculous… a throwaway Trump line.

That’s usually how it starts.

This is what Trump does. He puts something out there that people think is outrageous, outlandish and everyone is left with the idea that there is no way this could happen. But then he just stays maniacally fixated on it. It remains in his purview and he keeps advancing closer to it.

When you start with aggressive posturing on highly unlikely things, then at some point, a middle ground that used to seem unlikely begins to feel like a compromise position.

That pattern is now playing out in Greenland.

Asked how far he would go to acquire the island, he said, “You’ll find out.” He has said he intends to acquire it “whether they like it or not,” and warned that “if we don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way.”

Now, everyone is taking him deathly serious. Denmark is scrambling, trying to get their own (sparse) military force in place and the EU is issuing threats. But Trump has not backed off, softened his language, or changed the subject. And I’m guessing… he won’t

On Kalshi, traders are pricing a 47% chance that Trump takes control of some part of Greenland in 2026. These are institutional, U.S.-based participants operating inside the American financial system. They are treating this as a question of capability and follow-through.

That number would have sounded absurd not long ago. It doesn’t now.

Geopolitical betting markets gained credibility when a trader wagered $32,000 on the removal of Nicolás Maduro and cleared more than $400,000 after U.S. forces captured him. That outcome recalibrated how risk is priced. Capital shifted toward results rather than process.

That mindset now frames Greenland.

The island sits on the Arctic flank and it already hosts U.S. military infrastructure. It contains rare earth mineral reserves essential to missile defense, advanced weapons systems, AI hardware and modern industrial supply chains. Control over those inputs carries long-term strategic value.

The cleanest way to understand where this is headed is not through diplomatic statements or moral outrage. It is through capital flows and the behavior of people whose money tends to move events rather than react to them.

If you want to understand what comes next, follow the money.

Your Rundown for Wednesday, January 21, 2026...

What’s Really Being Fought Over

The mistake is thinking this is about Greenland the place. It’s not. It’s about Greenland the balance sheet.

Just months after Trump first floated acquiring Greenland during his first term, back when we all just shrugged him off, some of the richest people in the world quietly began positioning themselves there.

For years, a group of tech billionaires — Sam Altman, Bill Gates, Peter Thiel and Jeff Bezos — have been building financial exposure to Greenland through AI-driven mining operations targeting rare earth elements.

These materials underpin the systems shaping the next decade: artificial intelligence, renewable energy, advanced weapons platforms, and hyperscale data centers. Control of supply determines control of capability.

At the same time, Silicon Valley investors promoted Greenland as a potential low-regulation “freedom city.” The vision includes AI hubs, autonomous transport, space launch facilities, micro-nuclear reactors and high-speed rail. Versions of this model have circulated for years under names like startup cities and charter cities. Trump endorsed similar projects during his 2023 campaign.

The idea gained traction with Ken Howery, Trump’s ambassador to Denmark and the expected lead negotiator on Greenland. Howery co-founded a venture capital firm with Peter Thiel and carries deep ties to the libertarian technology ecosystem driving these experiments.

Greenland’s own policy direction enabled this. Since 2009, its leadership has pursued integration into global markets while actively courting foreign investment. Officials traveled frequently to China and other East Asian markets to promote the island’s economic potential.

The strategy emphasized free-trade zones, export expansion and external capital as pathways to independence.

Greenland also spans roughly two-thirds the size of India and holds a population of about 57,000. An ice sheet covering 1.7 million square kilometres historically shielded its subsoil. As that ice retreats, previously inaccessible resources are now exposed.

Greenland holds roughly 12% of global rare earth reserves, including neodymium, dysprosium and lanthanum. These materials are essential to wind turbines, electric vehicles, consumer electronics, missile systems and AI data centers. According to the International Energy Agency, China accounted for roughly 60% of global mining and processing output in 2024, leaving the West structurally exposed.

Environmental disruption strained Greenland’s economy. Fisheries, responsible for over 90% of export income, became increasingly unstable. The government expanded mining, water exports, aviation, tourism and infrastructure while targeting deeper trade relationships with China, Japan, Korea and India.

That environment favored one company in particular.

KoBold Metals launched in 2018 with AI designed to improve mineral discovery. Its systems integrate satellite imagery, geological data and historic drilling records, updating dynamically as terrain changes. KoBold has operated in Greenland since 2021 through the Disko-Nuussuaq project, targeting nickel, copper, cobalt, platinum-group metals and rare earths.

By December 2024, KoBold’s Series C round valued the company just under $3 billion following a $537 million capital raise. Bezos, Gates, and Michael Bloomberg invested beginning in early 2019, months after Trump raised the Greenland idea. Altman joined in 2022.

Trump entered an environment already shaped by money, materials and strategic competition.

Greenland hosts Pituffik Space Base, a U.S. Space Force installation. During World War II, the U.S. operated 17 bases on the island. The treaty framework remains expansive.

The Pentagon recently ordered 1,500 active-duty troops from the 11th Airborne Division — the “Arctic Angels,” based in Alaska and trained for Arctic warfare — to prepare for possible deployment to Minnesota. Officially, the reason was domestic unrest, but the unit choice raised eyebrows. Arctic specialists signal Arctic planning.

Greenland has already been capitalized, mapped and staffed. It now resembles a company awaiting a change of control.

We’ll see how it unfolds. In the meantime, watch where private capital is flowing, because Greenland is starting to look like an acquisition in progress.

Market Rundown for Wednesday, January 21, 2026

S&P 500 futures are down 2.06% to 6,796.86.

Oil is up 0.22% to $60.49 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up 2.34% to $4,877.10 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up 0.85% to $89,069.84.