Yesterday, we failed to mention that October 31st marks more than just the occasion for trick-or-treating.

Reformation Day, in fact, commemorates the pivotal moment in history when a German monk, Martin Luther, nailed his Ninety-Five Theses to Wittenberg’s Castle Church door in 1517.

Aided by the invention of the printing press 77 years beforehand, Luther’s ideas spread quickly throughout Europe. And the Protestant Reformation was born.

Whether you consider yourself an atheist or a devout religious observer, the Reformation's emphasis on challenging traditional institutions as well as the individual’s role in society paved the way for the Age of Reason.

By which, America's founders were largely influenced to establish a system of government based on individual rights, religious freedom and separation of church and state.

I bring up these historical revolutions today in light of this year’s election. Do I think November 5th will be as influential as the Protestant Reformation or the Age of Reason? Hardly…

Your Rundown for Friday, November 1, 2024...

The Election, Deaths of Despair and Church Parking Lots

My parents tell me they’ve noticed an interesting pattern. Namely, full church parking lots on Sundays this year.

Is there a direct correlation to the election? I couldn’t find hard data suggesting that’s the case.

But we’re taking a look at research today that might impact November 5th.

In 2015, a groundbreaking study by economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton shed light on a troubling trend in America: rising death rates among middle-aged whites.

They attributed this increase to fatalities caused by drug overdoses, alcohol-related illnesses and suicides — what they called “deaths of despair.”

As years passed, however, researchers questioned the validity and usefulness of this category.

A 2019 Congressional study, for instance, revealed that a staggering 70% of the increase in these death rates was due to drug-related causes alone, raising doubts about whether these deaths truly stemmed from despair or were primarily the result of the raging opioid crisis.

But a 2023 study has added a new dimension to this discussion. Research now suggests that weakening social ties play a role in these mortality trends.

In fact, the decline in death rates from drug overdoses, alcoholism and suicide among middle-aged whites plateaued around 1990, well before the surge in opioid use.

Researchers found an intriguing correlation between religious service attendance and deaths of despair.

• States with higher religious participation had fewer such deaths, and as attendance declined, mortality rates climbed.

To establish a causal link, the authors examined the repeal of blue laws, which had previously banned Sunday commerce to encourage churchgoing.

Following these repeals, religious attendance typically plummeted, and deaths of despair rose sharply in the subsequent years with the most significant increase in suicides.

Perhaps most revealing was the finding that private prayer showed no correlation with lower deaths of despair.

This suggests that the protective effect stems not from private religious belief itself, but from the social connections fostered by organized religion.

While other secular groups can also build social capital, faith-based networks appear to offer particularly strong protection against deaths of despair.

Is my parents’ anecdotal observation valid? That’s unclear. But it might not hurt to attend your local house of worship this Sunday.

As for the direct impact on the election this year: “In the U.S., Christians tend to vote, and they tend to vote Republican,” concludes a study from Rice University.

Market Rundown for Friday, Nov. 1, 2024

S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% to 5,760.

Oil is up 2.5%, just under $71 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up 0.65% to $2,766.80 per ounce.

Bitcoin’s pulled back 0.10% to $70,200.