You don’t normally hear from me on Thursday.

The Rundown lands in your inbox every Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

The reason I’m breaking our normal schedule?

Because exactly 33 days from now, Americans will decide which party controls Congress.

And if there’s one person at Paradigm whose election analysis deserves consideration during these final 33 days, it’s Jim Rickards.

Jim doesn’t simply read a poll’s headlines.

He actually reads the footnotes. Who did they poll — registered voters or likely voters? What’s the margin of error? How big is the sample?

Most people never read that fine print.

They see one candidate up two points, another down three and move along.

But the headline number can hide almost as much as it reveals.

Jim demonstrated that in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election.

He spent months examining the polls state by state, particularly in the battlegrounds that would determine the Electoral College.

Then, on Nov. 1, Jim forecast Donald Trump would win 312 electoral votes.

Four days later, Americans voted.

The final Electoral College result?

Trump 312. Harris 226.

But 2024 wasn’t Jim’s first unconventional election call…

Your Rundown for Thursday, October 1, 2026...

Jim’s Midterm Math: 40–40–20

Jim also forecasted Trump’s victory in 2016 when most prominent polling models strongly favored Hillary Clinton.

Now Jim is applying his framework to 2026.

He sees a surprisingly small contest hiding inside these midterms.

Although all 435 House seats are on the ballot, he believes only about 25 races are truly in play.

Meanwhile, the Senate fight has reached states Republicans might once have considered safe.

Texas. Kansas. Iowa. Alaska. North Carolina. Ohio.

Several of those races are now commanding attention and resources that Republicans might have preferred to spend elsewhere.

But the number of competitive races is only part of Jim’s thesis.

His shorthand divides the electorate roughly 40% Republican, 40% Democratic and 20% independent. That’s an analytical framework, not the literal national party-identification breakdown.

In Jim’s view, that means roughly 80% of voters have already picked a side. That puts enormous weight on the remaining slice of the electorate — particularly independent and undecided voters who could break either way.

Jim cautions, however, against assuming those voters neatly share the priorities of either party’s base.

Put it together and his thesis becomes remarkably simple:

About 25 consequential House races. A handful of competitive Senate contests. And control of Congress could ultimately rest on a small number of voters in states that weren’t expected to be battlegrounds.

Thirty-three days isn’t much time.

So between now and Nov. 3, you’ll be hearing more of Jim’s election analysis at The Rundown. We’ll follow the races Jim believes matter most — and what’s changing as Election Day approaches.

The calendar says 33 days.

From here, we’ll count them down.

Market Rundown for Thursday, Oct. 1, 2026

S&P 500 futures are up 0.35% to 7,740.

Oil is up 1.45% to $91.70 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold’s up 0.60% to $4,212.20 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up 0.30%, just under $84K.