Paradigm’s macro authority Jim Rickards is a long-time advocate for gold as a cornerstone of financial stability.

Jim has consistently emphasized the importance of gold in a world where fiat currencies face increasing pressure.

And his gold forecast is nothing short of eye-opening.

But before we get there, Jim’s prediction is not mere speculation but the result of detailed modeling and historical precedents.

First, Jim explains that during financial crises, gold prices often follow a predictable pattern…

• Initially, the price of gold drops alongside stocks as investors liquidate assets to cover margin calls or meet liquidity needs.

“You sell what you can,” Jim notes, highlighting the panic-driven behavior that dominates markets during such times.

However, this initial sell-off is typically followed by a sharp rebound as “strong hands” step in to buy gold at discounted prices.

It’s important to point out that even if stocks moderate this week, providing relief (even temporarily) from recent stock-market downturns, Jim’s fundamental thesis supporting gold’s rise remains instructive and unchanged.

And as you’ll see below, Jim has evidence of this cycle playing out as we speak…

Your Rundown for Monday, April 14, 2025…

The Case for $27,000 Gold

“What if confidence in command currencies collapses due to some combination of excessive money creation, extreme levels of dollar debt, a new financial crisis, war or natural disaster?” Jim posits.

If confidence in fiat currencies collapses, central banks may have no choice, he says, but to return to a gold standard.

In such a scenario, the “implied non-deflationary price of gold” would need to be recalibrated to maintain equilibrium between gold reserves and the money supply.

To wit, M1 is the most liquid part of the U.S. money supply, meaning it’s the easiest to convert into cash.

It includes physical cash (bills and coins), bank reserves held in vaults and deposits like checking accounts.

Currently, the U.S. M1 money supply totals $17.9 trillion.

As for gold, “the U.S. Treasury reserves [total] 8,100 metric tonnes (261.5 million troy ounces),” says Jim.

If the government were to return to a gold standard today, according to Federal Reserve rules from 1913–1946, the legal requirement would be that 40% of M1 money supply be backed by gold.

Applying this 40% ratio, $7.2 trillion worth of gold would be necessary. “Applying the $7.2 trillion valuation to 261.5 million troy ounces yields a gold price of $27,533 per ounce,” Jim notes.

Although no forecast is guaranteed, Jim believes this scenario is well within the realm of possibility given current macroeconomic trends. “This isn’t a guess,” he adds.

Beyond the Fed’s 20th Century model, Jim highlights real-world factors driving gold prices higher.

• On the supply side, global gold production has been declining steadily since 2017, with miners struggling to find high-quality ore deposits. This stagnation in supply creates upward pressure on prices when demand increases.

• On the demand side, central banks have been significant buyers of gold, with purchases surging by 1,000% between 2010–2022. This trend shows no signs of slowing down; central banks acquired 800 metric tonnes of gold in 2023 alone. Jim notes that much of this demand stems from concerns about the stability of fiat currencies as well as geopolitical risks.

For individual investors, Jim’s advice is straightforward: act now. Gold’s price trajectory follows an exponential pattern where percentage gains become easier as the base price rises.

For instance, moving from $2,000 to $3,000 per ounce represents a 50% gain, but moving from $14,000 to $15,000 per ounce is only a 7% increase.

“Those $1,000 pops get even easier as we approach my calculated gold price of $27,533,” he explains.

The implication is clear: gold buyers today stand to benefit most as they accumulate more gold at lower prices and enjoy higher percentage returns during the early stages of a rally.

Jim’s analysis paints a compelling picture for gold’s future. For investors, the message is clear: moments of market panic often present opportunities to buy gold before its price resumes its upward trajectory.

Whether driven by geopolitical crises or fundamental supply-demand dynamics, gold remains an essential asset for preserving wealth during uncertain times.

As Jim succinctly puts it: “Get your gold while you can.”

Market Rundown for Monday, April 14, 2025

S&P 500 futures are up 1.45% to 4,570.

Oil is up 1.50% to $62.40 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is down 0.40% to $3,230.50 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up 1.25% to $85,000.