[Our macro insider Jim Rickards has been tracking what he calls the “third great gold bull market,” and his latest analysis goes far beyond the headlines about record-breaking gold prices.

In today’s special guest essay, Jim explains why this bull run is only getting started… what hidden forces are driving it… and why, in his words, “each $1,000 increase in gold is easier than the one before.”

If you’ve been waiting for a clear signal to buy gold — or to add to your position — this is it. Read on for Jim’s full synopsis.]

You know about the run-up in the price of gold; it has become a mainstream media story. But the gold situation is bigger than that. There are important developments almost daily that will sustain the gold bull market for years to come. Let’s look briefly at the gold price action and then turn to these breaking developments.

Gold is in its third great bull market. There really were no bull or bear markets from 1870–1971 because the world was on a gold standard at a fixed price. The global gold standard had flaws. Some countries joined earlier than others. The U.S. did not formally adhere to a gold standard until 1900, but the U.K. and the London gold market maintained a steady price from 1815 (after the Napoleonic Wars) until 1914 after which the U.S. maintained a world price.

There were breaks in the system from 1931–1934 when the U.K. and U.S. devalued their currencies against gold, but a new fixed price was established. A true floating rate market in gold did not emerge until Richard Nixon closed the gold window in 1971.

The first bull market (1971–1980) saw gold soar 2,200% in eight years. The second bull market (1991–2011) witnessed a gold price rally of 670% in twelve years.

The third bull market — which we are in today — is more difficult to date. If one begins at the interim low of $1,050 per ounce in December 2015 until today’s price of $4,220 per ounce, then the gain is 300% over ten years, which is less than the two prior bull markets. Of course, this bull market is far from over and material gains in the near future should be expected.

However, gold moved in a range of $1,000 per ounce to $2,000 per ounce during the period from 2015–2025 until July 1, 2023, when a breakout above $2,000 per ounce began. If we date the bull market from that point, we see a rally of 110% in just over two years.

If we take the average gain for the first and second bull markets — over 1,400% — and take an average duration of ten years and apply those metrics to a baseline of $2,000 per ounce in 2023, that suggests gold will reach $28,000 per ounce by 2033.

Of course, this method is arbitrary. Gains could be much larger and come much faster. A replay of the 1971–1980 scenario would put gold close to $100,000 per ounce by 2032.

With this as background, it’s entirely reasonable to suggest gold could reach $10,000 per ounce by late 2026 — on its way much higher.

Your Rundown for Monday, December 8, 2025...

$10,000 Gold

What few investors may realize is that each $1,000 increase in the price of gold is easier than the one before. The price gain is the same at each milestone, but the percentage increase is smaller because each increase is working from a higher base.

Going from $4,000 to $5,000 per ounce is a 25% gain, for instance. But going from $9,000 to $10,000 per ounce is only an 11% gain. This is why the push to $10,000 per ounce will go slowly at first and then quickly.

That much is widely known. What is less well-known is a series of underreported events that will turbocharge the gold’s price gains ahead. Here is a summary of those events:

1. Central banks remain net buyers of gold as they have been since 2010. This puts an informal floor under the price of gold while allowing for unlimited upside.

2. Mining output has been flat for the last six years. This does not mean “peak gold”, but it shows that gold is getting harder to find and more expensive to mine. Supply constraints + expanding demand = higher prices.

3. The copper-to-gold price ratio is at an all-time low. This speaks to the relative role of industrial metals versus precious metals. The gold price can rise in recessionary scenarios and depressions. Gains are not limited to periods of inflation and hot economies.

4. Russia has demonstrated that it can survive Western dollar-based financial sanctions by holding over 25% of its reserves in physical gold. That’s a lesson the world and especially the BRICS are internalizing.

5. Digitally tokenized gold has become a huge new source of demand. Tether is leading the way with its XAUt token that has a current market cap (tied to the price of gold) of $2.2 trillion. The gold held in vaults to support the token now exceeds 16.2 metric tonnes, more than some countries. This gold is not traded, and the token is only redeemable for cash, not physical gold. This means Tether is the ultimate buy-and-hold gold investor, and their gold is effectively off the market.

6. Italy has recently taken steps to asset Italian gold (2,452 metric tonnes — the third-largest gold reserve in the world after U.S. and Germany) belonging to the Italian people and not to the Bank of Italy. That dispute has cooled down, but its mere existence shows that a global struggle for possession of physical gold is underway.

7. Television and media personality Tucker Carlson has launched an online gold dealing operation. That’s only one among many online dealers, but it shows that gold ownership is reaching a wider audience; we are getting closer to the retail frenzy stage of price appreciation.

8. The U.S. Treasury is giving serious consideration to revaluing its gold reserves by pressing the Federal Reserve to reprice the value of its 1934 gold certificate. The current value of the certificate is $42.22 per ounce. If revalued to $4,200 per ounce, this would not change the world price of gold (it’s just an accounting entry), but it would add about $1 trillion to the Treasury’s account at the Fed, and it would show that the U.S. respects gold as a legitimate monetary asset.

Other material developments in the gold markets are happening daily. We expect this to continue. If you have not invested in gold yet — or if your allocation is small — it’s not too late to invest.

The biggest gains are still ahead and will happen sooner than later. The time to invest is now.

Market Rundown for Monday, December 8, 2025

S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% to 6,885.

Oil is down 1.25% to $59.30 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold’s pulled back slightly to $4,238.20 per ounce.

And Bitcoin’s up 0.35% to $91,730 this morning.