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Midterms Raise Odds of Biden Run

Posted November 15, 2022

Matt Insley

By Matt Insley

Midterms Raise Odds of Biden Run

The Democrats have been taking victory laps after outperforming expectations in the midterm elections. 

But it looks very likely that the Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives after the final results are made official.

That means Nancy Pelosi will hang up her gavel, probably for the last time. After all, she’s 82 years old. It’s time for her to pass the baton on to a new generation of leaders, right? 

We’ll take a closer look at that question below.

But first, I wanted to highlight some ominous signs that should give the Democrats pause before they pop the next bottle of champagne ahead of a contentious lame-duck session of Congress. 

Yesterday it was reported that Amazon plans to lay off 10,000 employees before the holidays. 

Along with a blizzard of other high-profile tech sector layoffs, this is a big red flag that a recession is on its way. For starters, it makes you wonder why Amazon and some others waited until right after the midterms to announce the bad news. 

So while Biden is riding high from a better-than-expected midterm — maybe even enough to give him the confidence to run in 2024 — his rocky presidency could be headed for its toughest stretch yet… 

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Your Rundown for Tuesday, November 15, 2022...

Executive INcapacity 

It didn’t take long after the midterms for Biden to hint again that he’s going to campaign again. After all, it’s the tradition for the presidential race to start in earnest after midterms .

This time is different from all previous first-term presidencies, however, for a simple reason. 

Biden would be 82 years old if he’s sworn in for a second term… which means he’d be 86 years old if he managed to make it through a second term. 

Paradigm’s Jim Rickards provides some context on how far away from tradition this takes us… 

“Prior to Biden, the oldest president ever elected was Ronald Reagan, who was 69 when he was sworn in and 77 when he completed his second term…. 

“Biden stands in sharp contrast to the following presidents who were sworn in at the ages indicated: Teddy Roosevelt (42), John F. Kennedy (43), Ulysses S. Grant (46), Grover Cleveland (47), and James K. Polk (49). Almost all of the remaining presidents were in their 50s or early 60s when they were sworn in. George Washington was 57.” 

But, Jim explains, questions about age can’t be simply dismissed as “ageism.” 

“The ‘age barrier’ is about a specific talent called executive capacity. It’s about the ability to command vast amounts of data, balance competing points of view, and make life-or-death decisions in high-stress conditions… 

“Those in their 80s have wisdom and experience to offer but are the first to admit that they are not best suited to make command decisions where the fate of the nation is at stake… 

“Is Biden up to the task? Clearly not. He exhibits signs of dementia almost daily. Dementia is a progressive condition, highly correlated with age, and irreversible with current medical treatments.”

In conclusion, the prospects don’t look bright as the U.S. faces economic pain not seen in generations. 

“We are heading down the path of having a senile octogenarian president who may die in office and be succeeded by an incompetent hack in a dangerous world. As an investor, are you ready for that?”

Market Rundown for Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2022

S&P 500 futures are up 1.40% to 4,010. 

Oil is down 1.50% to $84.66 for a barrel of WTI. 

Gold’s down nominally to $1,775.30 per ounce. 

And, finally, Bitcoin is rallying, up 3.7% to $16,850.

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