The Trump administration has been adamant about preventing China from accessing Nvidia’s most advanced GPUs.

The idea is to hamper their efforts to catch up in AI, and in particular to prevent China’s military from accessing our most advanced tech.

But on Monday, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suddenly changed his tune. He said Trump is weighing whether to allow China to import advanced Nvidia chips.

Lutnick hinted that a decision would be made soon, telling Bloomberg TV, “That kind of decision sits right on the desk of Donald Trump.”

Why the sudden shift in policy?

There are a few potential explanations. Today, we’ll cover the most likely ones and analyze what it could mean for the world’s top company by market cap.

Your Rundown for Wednesday, November 26, 2025...

Trade Wars Meet AI Battles

First, advanced AI chips could have simply been a bargaining chip in the trade wars. Perhaps if China is willing to re-open rare earth exports for all U.S. companies, including defense firms, the President would finally be willing to play the Nvidia card.

Currently, American defense firms are struggling to get the rare earth products (like magnets) they need to produce radars, missiles, jets, submarines and just about every other military product imaginable. China is currently willing to sell to consumer products manufacturers, but not military ones. 

Perhaps if we allow China to regain access to advanced chips like Nvidia, and perhaps more importantly, the equipment to manufacture their own advanced chips, they’ll open back up the floodgates on rare earths. The government is working hard to build Western self-sufficiency in these minerals and elements, but that’s at least a few years off still.

Meanwhile, China is attempting to build up their own domestic AI hardware capabilities, but are still a few years behind leading American firms like Nvidia, AMD and Google.

There’s another possible explanation. Nvidia shares sold off yesterday as investors digested Google’s latest impressive AI release, Gemini 3. Gemini 3 was made without Nvidia GPUs, and doesn’t require them to operate. It runs entirely on TPUs, Google’s proprietary AI hardware.

So it seems probable that Nvidia is lobbying the administration hard to open back up the China market. In fact, when Lutnick was talking to Bloomberg TV, he stated this bluntly, “He’s got Jensen from Nvidia who really wants to sell those chips, and there’s some good reason for it.”

The company’s founder/CEO Jensen Huang has been insistent that maintaining its AI hardware market share in China is critical since so many AI companies and engineers are based in China. If we give China the incentive and opportunity to build their own alternatives, Huang has argued, they will take full advantage of it and be competitive in AI hardware within a few short years.

During a time when the market appears worried about the possibility of the bubble popping, it would be a big deal for Nvidia to announce that the Chinese market is opening back up. Currently founder and CEO Huang says that Nvidia has forecast “zero” sales into the Chinese market.

It’s almost certain that some quantity of high-end AI chips are still being smuggled into China, but it’s very difficult to estimate how many. If an agreement is reached that allows Nvidia to sell advanced chips into China once again, it could provide a substantial boost for the company.

Nvidia has been the primary beneficiary of the AI boom so far. But that’s despite the fact that it’s been caught in the middle of a trade war. When the U.S. cut China off from the most advanced AI chips in 2022, Nvidia lost a substantial chunk of its revenue. It’s wild to think that without the trade war, Nvidia would be doing even better.

Now Nvidia stands at a crossroads. They’re facing rising competition from proprietary AI hardware from Google (and others). At the same time, they might regain access to China, one of their most important markets.

So which explanation makes the most sense? A card to be played in the trade war, or an attempt to revive Nvidia from its (so far minor) slump? A combination of both seems most likely.

The stakes couldn’t be higher here. We’ll keep a close eye on both AI and trade wars — and keep you updated going forward.

Market Rundown for Wednesday, November 26, 2025

S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% to 6,790.

Oil’s down 0.35% to $57.75 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up 0.35% to $4,155 per ounce.

Bitcoin’s down 0.60%, just under $87K.