Posted November 13, 2023
By Matt Insley
R-E-S-P-E-C-T the Rally
In answer to our question Friday about the culpability of FTX celeb endorsers, John W. says: “I think Tom Brady is a victim. Larry David too.”
Ralph G. disagrees: “If anyone is paid to endorse a product or concept, then they are responsible for leading (or misleading) people they influenced.
“While individuals should do their own due diligence when investing their money, fraudulent claims make that impossible. And endorsers must be held accountable for their role.”
Kerwin Z. says: “Celebrities appear in ads for income. They have no other product to sell.
“To me, anyone who invests based on a celebrity appearance is personally liable for losing their own money… Due diligence is ALWAYS THE NAME OF THE GAME. The amount of diligence should be proportional to the amount one can’t afford to lose.”
David B. adds: “The only ones ‘morally culpable’ are the regulators like Gary Gensler who gave SBF and FTX carte blanche. Along with the other usual suspects in government and media.”
We’ll publish several more of our readers’ opinions on SBF, FTX and celebrity endorsements on Wednesday.
Send your opinions to, firstname.lastname@example.org
Your Rundown for Monday, November 13, 2023...
Respect the Rally
“The stock market put together a couple of very strong weeks,”observes Paradigm’s income-investing ace Zach Scheidt.
“The S&P 500 is up over 7% since its late October low, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index is up roughly 10%.
“Those represent what some would consider a good return for a year… all in just about two weeks,” says Zach. “Not bad!”
On the other hand, he says: “Investors don’t necessarily have a good reason to buy; they just have less of a reason to sell…
- “Jerome Powell held interest rates steady and adopted a more dovish tone during the last Fed conference, which gave investors reason to be more confident
- Inflation readings came in better than expected
- Then a weak jobs report further indicated that the Fed could keep its dovish stance
- And what we’ve seen from corporate earnings this quarter — which have been okay, but not great — supports this observation.
“I don’t trust this rally because it’s happening for all the wrong reasons,” Zach says. “Stocks are trading higher on FOMO: the fear of missing out.
“We’re seeing a reflexive bounce back rather than something you’d want to have confidence in.
“The fourth quarter is typically a strong time for stocks, so the market rally may be supported more by seasonality rather than reality.
“Also, when sentiment is so negative, many investors set up short positions. When the market rallies, they’ll have to start covering their short positions.
“This helps support a short-term rebound, driving the market higher. But once the buying is exhausted, we can roll over.
“Now, I don’t have a crystal ball that tells me what exactly the market will do next,” Zach says. “But looking at the fundamentals right now and given my experience trading the market, I want to caution you not to trust this rally.
“It reminds me of a phrase from my hedge fund days: ‘Respect the price action, but don’t defer to it.’
“In other words, stocks are moving higher right now, and we have to respect that fact. But it doesn’t mean we defer completely to it,” says Zach.
“For now, I’d prefer that you use the market rebound to set up bearish positions on weak stocks that will trade lower after the rally is over.”
Market Rundown for Monday, Nov. 13, 2023
The S&P 500 is down 0.40% to 4,395.
Oil is up 0.40% to $77.48 for a barrel of WTI.
Gold has pulled back 0.25% to $1,934 per ounce, according to Kitco.
And Bitcoin is down 1% to $36,715.
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