“The U.S. doesn’t elect presidents on a national basis,” Paradigm’s political analyst Jim Rickards reminds us today.

“They’re elected state by state with each state winner collecting a certain number of electoral votes.

“A candidate who receives 270 (or more) electoral votes becomes president,” he explains.

But there are about 32 trillion possible ways the Electoral College could tie.

(No joke. That’s according to AI models.)

In the event of a 269-269 Electoral College deadlock:

• The newly-elected House of Representatives would choose the president, with each state delegation getting one vote. A 26-state majority is needed to win.

• At the same time, the Senate would select the vice president, with individual senators voting and a 51-vote majority required.

This process must be completed by Inauguration Day — January 20, 2025.

If the House fails to select a president by then, the Senate-elected vice president becomes acting president until the deadlock is resolved. (Vance? Walz?)

It’s worth mentioning that an Electoral College tie hasn’t occurred since 1836.

But the high-stakes nature of such a situation could lead to intense political maneuvering and social upheaval.

Enter stage right (or left): A Constitutional nightmare…

Send your opinions to, feedback@newsyoucanacton.com

Your Rundown for Friday, September 13, 2024...

A Narrow Slice of the Electorate Will Decide

“In the critical swing states,” says Jim, “the spreads favoring either candidate are razor-thin and within the polling margin of error.

“All seven battleground states” — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia — “are still in play and the election will likely come down to the wire.”

But according to Jim’s expert opinion: “The entire presidential election comes down to Pennsylvania…

“If Trump takes [Pennsylvania], he likely wins. If Harris takes it, she likely wins.”

In other words, neither candidate can afford to lose the Keystone State without winning an improbable combination of victories in other swing states.

“We also have to consider the state of the economy,” Jim adds. “In particular, the employment report that was released last week could have a strong impact on the presidential race.

“The jobs report showed payrolls grew by 142,000 in August, less than the 161,000 expected by analysts polled by Dow Jones,” he notes.

Meanwhile…

• “The economy needs to create between 180,000 and 200,000 jobs per month to keep up with growth in the working-age population, taking into account a recent surge in immigration,” Reuters says.

The weaker-than-anticipated employment figure suggests an economic slowdown is underway, potentially leading to a recession. This could trigger a stock market decline.

“A drawdown in the market is unquestionably positive for Trump,” Jim concludes.

“A major market setback would be a huge negative for Harris since the Biden-Harris administration is currently in office and cannot duck responsibility.”

Jim underscores how tight the presidential race actually is.

Undecided Americans are going to choose at the last minute, based on how well their personal kitchen-table issues have been addressed by the candidates.

And there’s a narrow slice of the electorate that will decide these battleground states, none more consequential than Pennsylvania.

The media say an Electoral College tie is impossible — statistically, it’s not going to happen — but chaos in a single swing state is as good as a tie.

Market Rundown for Friday, Sept. 13, 2024

S&P 500 futures are up 0.20% to 5,615.

Oil’s up 1.10% to $69.75 for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate.

Gold is up 0.55% to $2,596 per ounce.

But Bitcoin is down almost 1% to $57,740 at the time of writing.

Send your comments and questions to, feedback@newsyoucanacton.com