Posted September 11, 2024
By Matt Insley
Takeaways From Last Night’s Debate
Frankly, the biggest “needle mover” from last night’s Presidential Debate in Philadelphia is that Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris shortly after the debate’s conclusion.
Before we get to debate specifics… some perspective.
While they might be entertaining, presidential debates rarely sway undecided voters.
Studies show a mere 3.5% switch candidates while 86.3% stick to their guns.
You might remember 1960. Kennedy’s charisma made a difference. Later, Obama got a post-debate bump in 2008.
But that’s not the norm. Don’t expect debates to turn the tide in a substantial way… unless you’re in a nail-biter election.
Which, buckle up, applies to Election 2024. Remember, nothing about this election cycle has been normal and we’re not going to get normal starting now.
According to a headline at economist Neil Howe’s Substack “Demographics Unplugged”: This Election Will Be a Cliffhanger.
Current betting markets show a tight race between Trump and Harris, Howe notes, with Polymarket favoring Harris at 50% and PredictIt showing Harris in the lead at 56%.
But acclaimed forecaster Nate Silver's model gives Trump a significant edge at 63.8% probability of winning the election, despite Silver expecting a popular vote loss.
All of which confirms our suspicions about election polls: there’s more (and less) than meets the eye. View them with healthy skepticism.
Instead of dwelling on the debate’s spectacle, let’s get down to brass tacks — something candidates rarely have time for as they angle for the best sound bites…
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Your Rundown for Wednesday, September 11, 2024...
The Debrief Every Patriot Needs to Hear
Trump’s positions on issues that matter to everyday Americans are clear…
Trump's tax policies would extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, slash corporate taxes to 15% and eliminate burdensome taxes on Social Security benefits and tips, putting more money in hard-working Americans' pockets.
On immigration, Trump's firm stance prioritizes national security and American jobs, proposing to protect our borders and to deport 15-20 million undocumented immigrants.
Trump's strategy to combat inflation focuses on boosting domestic energy production and cutting unnecessary red tape so American businesses can grow and innovate.
On the other hand? “By virtue of her not having to run in a primary, [Harris] has been able to remain very unspecific about exactly what she would do as president,” Howe says.
But here’s what (little) we do know…
- Harris supports extending child tax credits, offering a tax break for first-time homebuyers and raising the corporate tax rate to 28%.
- On immigration, Harris has failed to offer concrete solutions to this pressing issue.
- Aside from price controls at the grocery store, Harris plans to fight inflation by reducing prescription drug costs allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices.
What we haven’t mentioned yet is Trump’s or Harris’ positions on foreign policy, especially the war in Ukraine.
When pressed last night, Trump was noncommittal about a Ukrainian victory; instead, he promised to “stop the war,” negotiate peace and ultimately save lives.
Trump's pragmatic approach contrasts sharply with the Biden/Harris administration's potentially endless involvement in Ukraine, highlighting Trump’s America First foreign policy that prioritizes U.S. interests.
For a more complete post-debate debrief, you’re invited to tune in as Paradigm’s political analyst Jim Rickards reacts to the Trump-Kamala faceoff.
Jim will be joining me on our Paradigm Press YouTube Channel for his post-debate breakdown that goes beyond the headlines.
Prepare yourself for the unexpected…
Tune in TODAY — Wednesday, September 11 — so you don’t miss a minute of the action.
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Market Rundown for Wednesday, Sept. 11, 2024
S&P 500 futures are down 0.10% to 5,495.
Oil is up 2.35% to $67.29 for a barrel of West Texas crude.
Gold is up 0.15% to $2,547.60 per ounce.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is down 1.70% to $56,800.
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