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The “Mamdani Effect” Could Be Hochul’s Undoing

Posted October 10, 2025

Matt Insley

By Matt Insley

The “Mamdani Effect” Could Be Hochul’s Undoing

Earlier this week, we took a closer look at New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani — the self-described democratic socialist who’s captured the imagination of the city’s far left and the endorsement of Gov. Kathy Hochul.

As expected, the topic struck a nerve.

“I appreciate you speaking up for Eric Adams,” says John T. “Despite his flaws, I think he was sane and reasonable for a Democrat running New York City. At least he had a view of reality.”

“I don’t understand why living in a rent-stabilized apartment while earning a six-figure salary wasn’t disqualifying for Mamdani,” Lison B. writes. “His actions should speak louder than his words. As far as I’m concerned, he’s another corrupt politician.”

Several readers saw Mamdani’s rise as a symptom of something larger. “Socialism,” Kevin G. adds. “I wish there were a vaccine that would prevent the spread of this virus before it spreads from the New York cesspool.”

Larry W. takes the thought further: “Politics in New York have gone off the rails. Even though the previous mayor was off the rails too, this is a double derailment. Good luck, New York City. How many more people will leave for Texas, Florida or Tennessee?”

Others worried about what a Mamdani administration could mean for safety and order. “Sounds like a total disaster,” wrote John L. “Where are the honest, hardworking people going to move to? Sounds like the criminals will rule. The Democrats already do, and that’s turned the once-wonderful city into a nightmare.”

Tom S. takes aim at the ideology itself: “He will ruin New York. The rich are already leaving, which leaves only the middle class — already shrinking — and the poor. Socialism has been proven not to work anywhere. It’ll be the biggest disaster in U.S. history.”

Not everyone focused solely on Mamdani. One reader, John I., notes the double standard in the media’s treatment of urban crime: “Isn’t it amazing that the liberal media considers NYC crime chaotic even though the numbers are down. But in Chicago, the numbers are worse — and they call it normal?”

Whether the focus is ideology, crime or corruption, one theme shines through: frustration that New York seems determined to double down on the same failed policies.

Your Rundown for Friday, October 10, 2025...

Hochul’s Mamdani Problem

That frustration may be showing up in the numbers.

A new internal poll from GrayHouse, commissioned by Rep. Elise Stefanik’s PAC, shows Gov. Kathy Hochul holds a narrow five-point lead over GOP challenger Stefanik — 48% to 43% — before voters hear about either candidate’s record.

But after they learn Hochul has endorsed Mamdani, the race flips. Stefanik inches ahead 46.4% to 45.9%.

Pollster Landon Wall calls Hochul’s support “historically fragile,” pointing out that her “endorsement of politically toxic Zohran Mamdani collapses support among Independents.”

Nearly half of independent voters — 47% — report they’d be less likely to support Hochul or other Democrats in 2026 if Mamdani wins the mayor’s race next month.

It’s no wonder Stefanik is already framing her campaign around Hochul’s judgment…

  • “Kathy Hochul bent the knee to the communist antisemite running for mayor of New York City,” Stefanik says, calling Hochul “the worst governor in America” and accusing her of creating “an affordability crisis with the highest taxes, rent, and energy costs in the nation.”

Hochul’s approval among Democrats isn’t much better. In a primary matchup against her own lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, she manages just 43% support — a stunningly weak number for an incumbent.

Now, with the 2026 election year looming, Hochul appears to be reaching for the oldest trick in the political playbook: a check in the mail.

Her administration recently began issuing what it calls “inflation refund checks” — one-time payments of $150–$400 to millions of households, depending on income.

The stated goal is to offset higher sales taxes, but the timing is impossible to ignore. The checks began rolling out in late September, just as Hochul’s poll numbers started to slide.

While inflation refund envelopes pile up in mailboxes, voters are reminded of the very policies — runaway spending, energy restrictions and high taxes — that made those checks expedient in the first place.

For now, the governor’s office insists the payments were part of last year’s budget plan. But to many voters, it feels like too little, too late. As one upstate resident told a local reporter, “You don’t fix inflation with a refund — you fix it by stopping the people who caused it.”

If the new numbers hold, Hochul’s coalition may already be breaking apart. The real test will come after the New York City mayoral race in November.

Should Mamdani win, Stefanik’s prediction might come true: “New Yorkers are going to look for a check — not the kind Hochul’s mailing, but a Republican one in the voting booth.”

Market Rundown for Friday, October 10, 2025

S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% to 6,780.

Oil is down 1.45% to $60.60 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up 0.80% to $4,005.40 per ounce.

Bitcoin is up 0.45% to $121,590.

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