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The Rest of Us

Posted January 10, 2022

Matt Insley

By Matt Insley

The Rest of Us

Last week, if you recall, a reader didn’t want us to “fly over” scandal-plagued Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker. But the following contributor thinks we’re comparing apples to oranges…

“I'm a progressive (I guess you would call me a ‘liberal,’ as if that's a bad thing). But really? Comparing Andrew Cuomo to serious deadbeats? Cuomo simply doesn’t belong in this category. Cuomo’s not perfect, but he's hardly a financial criminal.

“I think your political bias is showing here.”

Unfortunately, we think Cuomo (regardless of his political affiliation) might have worse infractions to account for than financial crimes – as in literal blood on his hands in the case of mishandling New York’s nursing homes crisis during the pandemic, and then covering it up.

That said, we try hard not to be politically-biased; in fact, we write about politics only because the folks in D.C. and U.S. capitals affect the lives and livelihoods of… the rest of us.

For more on that score, read on…

Send your opinions to, TheRundownFeedback@StPaulResearch.com

Your Rundown for Monday, January 10, 2021...

U.S. Midterms and Your Portfolio

There’s no way around it: 2022 is a midterm election year here in the U.S. And we believe it’s important, 10 days into the new year, to get some perspective on the months ahead.

First, you might not be aware – the pandemic took up a lot of mental space, after all – but 2021 marked the second-best S&P 500 performance in history with a return of 26.9% or just 1% away from the index’s all-time high performance.

The S&P 500, in fact, topped the Dow’s, Nasdaq’s and Russell 2000’s performance last year.

So, what can we expect from the index this year? To answer that, we can’t ignore macro conditions, including midterm elections.

Historically speaking, U.S. midterm elections influence the stock market. Here’s a peek at an annual seasonality chart for the last 71 years…

image

Source: Seasonax/FX Empire

“During the US midterm election cycle,” says FX Empire, “a pullback.starts in January, April to September are the worst months for [the] S&P 500” – see how the chart turns negative? – “while the last 3 months are the best in terms of the performance.

“In short, [the] S&P 500 is very choppy for the first 9 months and one might find the bull momentum is gaining traction only in early November.”

All told, the solution to a volatile midterm stock-market year is to stay agile and, if history rhymes (and it typically does), time your trades accordingly.

We’ll be here to help with some of the best ways to survive – and leverage – a volatile year ahead.

Market Rundown for Monday, Jan. 10, 2021

The S&P 500 is down 1% to 4,620.

Oil is down to $78.65 for a barrel of West Texas crude.

Gold is down $4.80 to $1,793.20 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is down 4% to $40,750.

Send your comments and questions to, TheRundownFeedback@StPaulResearch.com

Back Wednesday with more… Until then, take care.

For The Rundown,

Matt Insley

Matt Insley
Publisher, The Rundown
TheRundownFeedback@StPaulResearch.com

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