Rarely in life have I been so happy to be wrong…

As Chuck C. reports: “FEMA showed up in our little town of Black Mountain on Sunday! Two days after the storm hit western North Carolina.

“We live two miles outside of town. They looked at my property damage as well as our neighbors. And friends in Asheville have had the same experience.”

Then there’s this comment: “I'm a native New Orleanian,” says Lorre J. “I lived through Betsy in 1965 and Katrina in 2005.

“I know the aftermath of a major hurricane first hand. Almost twenty years later, we are still recovering from Katrina. My heart breaks to see the images coming from Ashville and beyond.”

Absolutely. And our thoughts and prayers are with those in or evacuating Florida right now.

On to our topic today: How a once reliable Republican stronghold evolved into a potential battleground state for the 2024 presidential election…

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Your Rundown for Wednesday, October 9, 2024...

A Surprising Path to Victory

“Political analysts speak of something they call the ‘path to victory,’” says Paradigm’s Beltway authority Jim Rickards.

“A tally of 270 electoral votes is a bare majority of the total [598], and that’s enough to win the White House.

• “Trump’s path to victory is straightforward,” Jim says. “He needs to win all of the [28] states he won in 2020. That seems highly likely as of now, although the race is close in North Carolina according to RealClearPolitics. He also needs to flip Arizona and Georgia to his column.

• “The path for Kamala Harris is more challenging but still feasible,” Jim notes. “She begins with the Northeast-Mid-Atlantic base,” including D.C. and Virginia. “Then she picks up the liberal West Coast states. She pushes toward 270 with the ‘Blue Wall’ states of New York, Michigan, Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

“The problem is that all of those states and D.C. combined give her only 257 electoral votes,” Jim continues, “still 13 short of the target of 270.

“How does Kamala close that gap? You guessed it. Pennsylvania.

“If Kamala Harris wins Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes on top of the other states listed, then she is the next president.”

But now another state — not a traditional “swing state” — could come into play. “Trump has a few wild cards that could land in his favor, including a surprise victory in Virginia,” Jim says.

While Virginia has leaned Democratic in recent federal elections, the state's political landscape is dynamic:

• In 2020, for instance, Joe Biden won Virginia by just over 10 points, the largest margin for a Democrat since 1944.

• However, the 2021 state elections saw Republicans winning every statewide office, suggesting a potential shift in voter sentiment.

According to recent polling, it’s still a competitive race in Virginia. Albeit, a September 2024 Virginia Commonwealth University poll showed Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by 6 points among registered voters.

[We’ll have more to say on Friday about sampling “registered voters.” Stay tuned for that.]

Despite this lead, Virginia's status as a swing state has been reinforced by its diverse electorate.

The state's political landscape is shaped by the heavily Democratic Northern Virginia suburbs, balanced against more conservative rural areas.

This mix of liberal suburban and conservative rural voters makes Virginia a microcosm of national political trends, potentially making it a key battleground in 2024.

Market Rundown for Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024

S&P 500 futures are barely in the red at 5,795.

Oil is down 0.10% to $73.48 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is slightly in the green, up 0.05%, $2,636.70 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is down 0.40%, just under $62,000.

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