[Note from publisher Matt Insley: We’re featuring very important research today from Emily Clancy, co-editor at Paradigm Pressroom’s 5 Bullets, about Germany’s emergency elections last weekend. She’ll be back Monday to unwind how events in the European powerhouse might impact relations with the United States.]

The German political scene was rocked in November 2024 when the ruling coalition fell apart.

Spectacularly. 

• Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government — a fragile alliance of the Social Democrat, Green and Free Democrat parties — crumbled under the weight of internal disagreements and mounting public pressure.

• This crisis reached a boiling point, forcing President Frank-Walter Steinmeier to dissolve the Bundestag (Germany’s legislative body) and call for snap elections.

Fast forward to Sunday’s 2025 election…

A record-breaking percentage of German voters, 82.5%, cast their ballots.

It was the highest voter turnout since German reunification in 1990!

And Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) emerged victorious with 28.6% of the vote, positioning Merz to be confirmed as the next chancellor on March 14th.

Perhaps the bigger story is the emergence of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party which secured a second-place finish with 20.8% of the vote — nearly doubling its 2021 election performance — while securing almost one-quarter of Bundestag seats.

Your Rundown for Friday, February 28, 2025...

Ground Zero for Political Upheaval

While the AfD is generally classified as a far-right party, it does contain some more moderate factions within its ranks.

Most visibly, co-leader Alice Weidel, of the Alternative Center wing of the AfD, calls for immigration and tax reform.

In addition, she questions how Germany benefits from 1) EU membership, 2) sanctions against Russia and 3) the “green” energy transition.

Overall, the AfD’s remarkably strong showing — particularly in eastern Germany — signals a rightward shift in German politics.

Check out this map for visual confirmation…

Source: The Federal Returning Office (02/24/2025), Deutsche Welle (DW)

Of particular interest? The state of Mecklenburg–Vorpommern (highlighted above) where 42.9% of voters cast their ballot for the AfD party.

Why is this German state so significant?

Because the Nord Stream pipelines connect to Germany at the village of Lubmin, located in the state of Mecklenburg–Vorpommern.

The under-the-Baltic Sea pipelines once carried cheap, plentiful liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia to Germany.

But in September 2022, explosives damaged three of the four pipes, causing massive destruction.

The mainstream media would have you believe the guilty party is still at large.

Or that Russia sabotaged its own profitable infrastructure.

• Notwithstanding, on February 7, 2022 — seven months before the pipeline bombing and weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine — President Biden chillingly threatened to “end” the pipeline project.

It’s a given: The Nord Stream catastrophe fueled energy prices and inflation in Germany, which peaked near 9% four months after the bombing.

At the same time, it fueled Germans’ skepticism towards established political parties and their policies — both at home and abroad.

Voters, frustrated with soaring costs and disillusioned by policy failures, increasingly embraced alternative political voices.

Sound familiar? Note, for example, how several of Weidel’s policy positions overlap with Trump’s.

Germany’s 2025 election results, in fact, reflect a rightward surge, echoing Trump’s America, and potentially redefining Germany’s role in Europe.

For more on this watershed moment, join us Monday as we unravel how Germany’s seismic shift could challenge U.S. interests in Europe.

Market Rundown for Friday, Feb. 28, 2025

S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% to 5,885.

Oil is down 1.25% to $69.45 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is down 0.80% to $2,872.70 per ounce.

Bitcoin’s down 3% to $80,620.

Emily Clancy
Editor, The Rundown