On Sunday, a last-minute marathon of negotiations between the U.S. and the European Union produced a trade truce — but it’s a ceasefire that leaves behind unresolved tensions and lingering questions.

The upshot? Starting immediately, the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on nearly all EU goods entering the country.

This covers major exports, especially cars and auto parts, but also includes textiles, chemicals and a broad range of consumer products.

However, the deal left important categories up in the air: while civilian aircraft parts, medical equipment and pharmaceuticals are supposed to be exempt for now, final details on these exclusions are still being negotiated

In return, the EU agreed to an ambitious $750 billion in American energy purchases over the next three years — a move that placates both Washington and European leaders eager to reduce reliance on Russian gas and oil

On top of that, EU officials and President Trump announced a $600 billion European commitment to invest in U.S. industries, with most of the funds expected to flow into automotive and pharmaceutical manufacturing, as well as large-scale purchases of American military equipment.

By his estimation, President Trump called the agreement “the biggest deal ever made.”

Your Rundown for Monday, July 28, 2025...

The Big Picture: Avoiding a Trade War (For Now)

For all Trump’s fanfare, European officials had to swallow a bitter pill. Countless EU industries, from German automakers to Italian pharma giants, now face a 15% tariff where once the average was just 2–3%.

It’s a steep climb, especially considering only months ago, EU negotiators were lobbying for a 10% rate and hoped for “zero-for-zero” trade in certain sectors like industrial goods and agriculture.

Nevertheless, a 15% tariff is a far cry from the 30% President Trump threatened if the EU didn’t settle by August 1

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz conceded the deal was “a painful compromise” but credited it with staving off “needless escalation in transatlantic trade relations.” (Merz was particularly relieved that German carmakers, once staring down tariffs as high as 27.5%, now face “only” 15%.)

Not all is settled, however: The 25% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum remain in place — even for Europe. And the fate of tariffs on wine, spirits and certain luxury and agricultural goods are still being negotiated.

What does this mean for U.S. consumers? Expect higher prices on many imported European cars, clothes and specialty items — with new vehicle prices alone rising by hundreds or even thousands of dollars as costs filter through the supply chain.

For Europe, the hope is that further negotiations can nudge things back to “normal.” For the Trump administration, it’s a moment to flex its negotiating muscle and rewrite the rules.

Perhaps a German-based chemical trade association summarized the mood best: “When one expects a hurricane, you rejoice at a simple storm.”

Market Rundown for Monday, July 28, 2025

S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% to 6,435.

Oil is up 1.85% to $66.35 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is down 0.20% to $3,328.70 per ounce.

And, at the time of writing, Bitcoin’s down to $118,900.