On Friday, we left you with a warning from Paradigm’s macro authority Jim Rickards.

Namely, he forecasts a recession — something he says interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will not avert, by the way.

Additionally, Jim points out while Trump's policies could boost the economy in the long run, the immediate future may be marred by issues inherited from Biden's presidency.

Issues including Inflation, excessive spending, deficits and regulatory burdens that, at present, are steering the economy into oncoming traffic.

Jim further draws a historical parallel with Ronald Reagan's presidency.

First, the Reagan era highlights political dynamics that are relevant today.

In spite of a split Congress, Reagan managed to push through significant parts of his agenda during his first two years in office.

Trump might likewise accomplish much of his agenda during a similar timeframe (but with the benefit of a GOP Congress).

Plus, Jim expects that Trump might face a similar economic trajectory…

Your Rundown for Wednesday, November 25, 2024...

Trump’s Timeframe Mirrors Reagan’s

He anticipates tough times in the first 12–18 months of Trump's term. However, Jim predicts a pivot to stronger economic conditions later.

This mirrors Reagan's experience:

• Reagan inherited an economy plagued by double-digit inflation and interest rates near 20%.

• Initially, this led to a severe recession, with unemployment peaking at 10.8% in 1982.

Despite these challenges, Reagan implemented “Reaganomics” which emphasized tax cuts and reduced government intervention.

By late 1982, recovery began, and the economy entered a period of sustained growth.

During Reagan's first term, for example, real GDP per working-age adult increased at a rate of 1.8% annually, compared to 0.8% during the Carter administration.

And the downtrodden Dow Jones Industrial Average surged almost 33% during this period.

Today, the latest member of the Paradigm Press team — we’ll call him “The Maverick” for now — highlights a rare investment opportunity, known as “echo trades” which typically arise following major market crashes.

• Accordingly, in the aftermath of the dot-com bust in 2000, Amazon shares plunged into penny-stock territory but have since surged 640X off its lows.

• Similarly (albeit not quite as dramatically), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) shares rebounded 50X since the 2007-2009 financial crisis.

Here’s the key takeaway: Do you recall the stock market crash in 2022?

The S&P 500 experienced a steep decline of 20%, marking its worst performance since the financial crisis of 2008.

The 2022 market downturn has put a floor under “echo trades.”

But you’ll need to be selective — especially during the first half of Trump’s term — because not all stocks will boom. We’ll have more on that in the coming weeks…

Market Rundown for Wednesday, Nov. 25, 2024

S&P 500 futures are up 0.50% to 6,015.

Oil is down 0.25% to $71.07 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is down 0.90% to $2,687.90 per ounce.

Bitcoin is up almost 1% to $97,640 at the time of writing.