Vice President JD Vance faces off with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Munich today, in a high-stakes showdown that could finally end Ukraine's bloody three-year war.

Zelensky, backed into a corner, is poised to surrender vast swaths of Ukrainian soil to Russia in a desperate bid for peace.

The embattled leader, once defiant, now contemplates relinquishing Crimea and chunks of Donetsk and Luhansk to Moscow's control.

“If Ukraine had not entered the war or ended it quickly, it could have retained all of its territory except Crimea, which is now part of the Russian Federation,” says Paradigm’s geopolitics expert, Jim Rickards.

“Ukraine missed that opportunity,” he adds. “After three years of fighting and the associated casualties and expense, Putin will insist on keeping the territories they have gained.”

More on that below…

Your Rundown for Friday, February 14, 2025...

Vance Negotiates Peace?

In exchange for this bitter territorial sacrifice, Zelensky requests U.S. security guarantees, dismissing European assurances as toothless without American muscle.

He's also dangling Ukraine's mineral riches and lucrative reconstruction contracts before American companies, hoping to secure continued U.S. backing.

That aside, the war's end could be a game-changer for the economy, potentially taming U.S. inflation.

The conflict has been a major contributor to global inflation, with energy and food prices skyrocketing due to supply chain disruptions.

“The Russian war in Ukraine contributed significantly to the painful acceleration in global inflation in 2022,” notes Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics.

• With the war’s end, experts anticipate a stabilization of commodity prices, particularly in wheat, oil and natural gas. This could lead to a gradual easing of inflationary pressures in the U.S. and around the world.

• The Federal Reserve, which has implemented multiple interest rate hikes partly in response to war-induced inflation, may now have more room to adjust its monetary policy.

Overall, this costly war has exacted a stunning toll: an estimated one million casualties, widespread destruction and massive population displacement.

And Zelensky's willingness to negotiate reflects growing desperation in Ukraine… particularly since Trump paused foreign aid to the country on January 24th.

Today? All eyes are on Vance as he sits down with Zelensky. This after President Trump reached out to Russian President Vladomir Putin for a 90-minute phone call on Wednesday.

If Vance brokers peace, it would burnish his — and his boss’s — political profile and reshape Eastern Europe's geopolitical landscape for years to come.

As Ukraine prepares to make painful concessions for peace, much of the world is watching, hoping that this marks the end of a tragic chapter in modern history.

Our best guess: Peace will be declared on or before February 24th, which marks the conflict’s three-year anniversary.

Market Rundown for Friday, Feb. 14, 2025

S&P 500 futures are down 0.10% to 6,125.

Oil is up 0.85% to $71.92 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold’s up 0.20% to $2,952.70 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up 0.70% to $96,820.