On Friday, we spotted an update at the “Silver Bulletin” from acclaimed election forecaster Nate Silver.

“Let’s cut to the chase,” he said. “So, who’s gonna win the election?”

If you recall, Silver — whom we mentioned briefly in our post-debate episode — gave Trump a 63.8% probability of winning the election before the debate.

But late last week, Silver’s model, pulling from polling averages across the country, found Harris in the lead by a margin of 2.9 points.

Of course, we’ve outlined the pitfalls of polling methodologies. Even so, that’s an incredibly slim margin from Silver.

Which reinforces a few election threads we’ve observed recently…

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Your Rundown for Monday, September 23, 2024...

A Trump Victory Doesn’t Fit the Media’s Narrative

“The spreads favoring either candidate are razor-thin and within the polling margin of error,” Paradigm’s political analyst Jim Rickards reminded us a little over a week ago.

“All seven battleground states” — Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia — “are still in play and the election will likely come down to the wire.”

Which happens to coincide with Mr. Silver’s appraisal:

And notice how Silver spotlights Pennsylvania?

Jim Rickards went out on a limb here, saying: “The entire presidential election comes down to Pennsylvania.

“If Trump takes [Pennsylvania], he likely wins. If Harris takes it, she likely wins.”

Then there’s this about Harris:

The mainstream media, however, doesn’t want to face facts.

There could be an Electoral College outcome which doesn’t jibe with the popular vote, like Silver says.

As for the notoriously left-leaning media, they’ve been sharpening their knives for Nate Silver.

“The people maddest at him are Democrats and progressives,” Vox reported last week.

“In some of these circles, the mere mention of Silver’s name brings derision, contempt, or even fury.”

But there was a time when Silver was a media darling — when he predicted Obama's wins, for instance.

Since then, he’s had the audacity to call out pandemic-era hysteria… Biden’s unfitness for office… and, perhaps most unacceptable of all, a potential Trump victory in 2024.

And that’s a bridge too far.

Silver's not backing down though, telling his critics he “doesn't give a sh*t” about their tantrums.

But Silver being sh*canned reveals the lefty media can't tolerate anything that doesn't fit their narrative.

Market Rundown for Monday, Sept. 23, 2024

S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% to 5,770.

Oil is slightly in the green at $71.05 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold’s stalled at $2,645.70 per ounce.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, is up 0.70% to $63,460.

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