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Posted November 08, 2022

Matt Insley

By Matt Insley

Will Republicans Embarrass Pollsters Again?

Election day is here. 

As soon as I finish getting this email to you, I’m off to my polling station here in Maryland. 

Stock futures are up this morning, with analysts forecasting that Republicans will win back at least one chamber of Congress, but probably both.  

As we watch results roll in this evening, I want to share a forecast below that supports Paradigm’s analysis. Our macro expert Jim Rickards has predicted a “Red Tsunami” is headed our way, and more analysts are joining that camp. 

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Your Rundown for Tuesday, November 8, 2022...

“Pollsters Still Having Trouble”

It’s no secret that the Democrats have a lot going against them. 

Polls show Americans are overwhelmingly concerned about the economy and the direction our country’s headed. 

And new analysis released by Rabobank on the eve of the election shows that “based on historical statistical relationships, we find that the distressing state of the economy and Biden’s low approval rating should deliver a landslide victory for the Republicans.”

In fact, they say the Democrats are likely to lose 75 House seats and 11 Senate seats — enough for a solid majority in both chambers. 

This is a stark contrast to what we’re hearing from many pollsters and mainstream media outlets…

“Current polls point to a more modest Republican victory, where the Democrats could still keep their majority in the Senate… 

“We conclude that either pollsters are still having trouble reaching potential Republican voters or the Republicans are wasting a golden opportunity to gain firm control of both the House and the Senate.”

Expectations for divided government, however, are already largely baked into market prices, the research team concluded. So don’t expect a massive stock rally after the election.

The one thing that would shock the market is if the Democrats somehow pull off an upset and hold on to the House. 

“This would keep the door open to ambitious left-wing policies that could further fuel inflation.”

Market Rundown for Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022

S&P 500 futures erased overnight losses to climb up 0.31% before market open. 

Oil is down 0.13% to $91.71 for a barrel of WTI. 

Gold is down almost 2% to $1,678.80 per ounce. 

And Bitcoin’s plummeted over 6%, at the time of writing, to $19,400. 

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