Election Day 2024 is finally here.

And the latest poll from Nate Silver shows a tight contest between Harris and Trump for the presidency…

Meanwhile, voters across the country are preparing to monitor the results of the presidential and congressional races (more on key Senate races tomorrow).

Should you panic if results are not immediately forthcoming as polls close?

Should you panic if political pundits lose their crap on-air around 9:00 pm EST?

Should you panic if you go to bed at 11:30 pm and the election is still undecided?

To answer these questions, we’re looking into the limitations and reliability of exit polls today…

Your Rundown for Tuesday, November 5, 2024...

You’ll Hear A Lot About Exit Polls Today. First, Some Context…

Exit polls provide early insights into voting patterns, collecting data on:

1. Voter choices for various races
2. Opinions on key issues like the economy, inflation and abortion
3. Demographic information to track voting patterns across different groups

These five-minute surveys are typically conducted via in-person interviews after voters have cast their ballots on Election Day.

(To account for early and mail-in voting, pollsters also conduct phone and text surveys.)

The National Election Pool (NEP) — including NBC News, ABC News, CBS News and CNN — relies on exit polls conducted by Edison Research.

Fox News and the Associated Press now use the AP VoteCast system which employs mail, phone and online surveys.

Today, you might notice that news outlets follow a strict 5 pm EST embargo on releasing exit-poll results. Plus, they refrain from reporting a state's winner until all polling centers in that state have closed.

But the media (and viewers glued to their screens at home) would do well to weigh exit-poll data judiciously…

While exit polls are valuable tools for understanding voter behavior and predicting outcomes, they have limitations.

First, they may not fully capture early or mail-in voting trends. Second, the data they reflect all depends on which voters participate in exit-poll surveys.

A few examples…

• Exit polls were generally accurate in 2008, correctly predicting Barack Obama's victory and capturing the demographic trends that led to his win.

• In 2016, however, exit polls missed badly by overestimating Hillary Clinton's support — particularly among white voters without college degrees.

• Again, exit polls were less reliable in 2020 due to pandemic-related changes. With far more people voting early or by mail, traditional in-person exit polling was less representative of the overall electorate.

This year, I expect exit polls to be similarly unreliable, especially considering the so-called “shy” or “quiet” Trump (or Harris) voter who may be reluctant to open up to pollsters.

That said? Understanding the nature and limitations of exit polls will help you better interpret the flood of information you’ll encounter today.

Grab the popcorn… And if you’ve been with us at Election Insider - The Rundown for the past 90 days, give us a thumbs up!

Market Rundown for Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024

S&P 500 futures are up 0.15% to 5,750.

Oil’s up 0.70%, pennies under $72 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is slightly in the green at $2,749.20 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up almost 2% to $68,700.