I hate opening a Monday Rundown like this. But I feel it’s necessary to pin a timeline of events to the corkboard.

Here’s the cleanest timeline I can give you, from the first strikes against Iran to the retaliatory counter-strikes that followed:

Saturday, Feb. 28 (Iran time): Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency cites explosions in Tehran at about 9:27 a.m. Al Jazeera describes strikes hitting districts tied to government ministries and military compounds, including reports of strikes on the Ministry of Intelligence, Ministry of Defence, the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran and the Parchin military complex, plus other areas in Tehran.

That same day, Iran’s National Security Council advised residents to leave Tehran amid fear of more escalation. Also reported that day: In Minab, Iranian media says an Israeli strike hit an elementary girls’ school, killing at least 51.

President Trump says the U.S. had begun a “major combat operation” in Iran aimed at “eliminating threats from the Iranian regime.”

Iranian state media confirms that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — along with several top Iranian officials — was killed in the initial strikes, a stunning blow to Tehran’s leadership and a direct trigger for retaliation.

Saturday into Sunday: Iran responds with waves of missile and drone attacks aimed at Israel and at U.S.-linked military assets across the region. Which include…

• Bahrain: Bahrain says a missile attack targeted the headquarters of the U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet
• Kuwait: Kuwait’s Ministry of Defence indicates Ali al-Salem Air Base was attacked by ballistic missiles that were intercepted
• UAE: Air defense systems intercepted incoming missiles; Al Jazeera notes a death in the UAE from falling debris.

Sunday, March 1: Reuters details escalating maritime spillover; at least three commercial oil/chemical tankers were damaged in Gulf-area incidents amid Iranian retaliation, signalling heightened shipping risk.

Reuters further reports Iran claiming it has effectively closed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Monday, March 2 (this morning): Al Jazeera says Iran’s missiles struck two energy-related sites in Qatar, with no injuries or fatalities at the sites reported. The outlet also reports debris causing minor injuries at Kuwait’s Mina al-Ahmadi refinery.

Also today, three U.S. Air Force F-15E fighter jets were mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defenses during active operations; all six crew members ejected safely and were recovered.

Finally, QatarEnergy suspended liquefied natural gas (LNG) production today after Iranian drone strikes hit facilities at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, disrupting output from one of the world’s largest LNG exporters.

Your Rundown for Monday, March 2, 2026...

America First… With a Fuse

One data point worth mentioning: A Reuters/Ipsos poll finds 27% of Americans approve of the strikes, 43% disapprove and 29% weren’t sure.

According to a poll brought to my attention by Daily Reckoning editor Adam Sharp, divisions are unmistakable along political party lines, especially in light of prior support for war in Afghanistan and Iraq:

Now, the part I can’t ignore with our Rundown audience: Trump ran as the president who wouldn’t add another forever war in the Middle East. A lot of you voted for that promise — not as a slogan, but as a line in the sand.

So here’s the question I want to put directly to you: Does this operation put America First… or does it risk pulling us into another open-ended war?

Hit reply and tell us, plainly, where you land:

• Support it — and why it’s necessary now
• Oppose it — and what you think the off-ramp should be
• Or uncertain — and what fact would change your mind.

I’ll read your replies. And publish some of them later this week.

And if you’re wondering how markets are digesting all of this… They’re doing what markets always do when missiles start flying in the Middle East.

Energy is firm. Shipping risk is back in the conversation. Safe-haven trades are catching a bid. Traders are recalculating supply routes, insurance premiums and how long this lasts.

Particularly in equities, you can feel the shift.

Market Rundown for Monday, March 2, 2026

S&P 500 futures are down 1.10% to 6,810.

Oil’s up a smoking 7.90% to $72.30 for a barrel of WTI.

The price of gold is up 3.35% to $5,424.50 per ounce.

Bitcoin’s up almost 1% to $65,935.