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Ukraine’s Not Going to Like This…

Posted February 19, 2025

Matt Insley

By Matt Insley

Ukraine’s Not Going to Like This…

In Friday’s issue, we discussed the possibility of Ukraine’s surrender. This contentious topic has sparked intense debate among our readers.

Here, for instance, are two contrasting viewpoints:

“As a Ukrainian-American, I'm deeply concerned about the potential surrender. Our people have fought bravely for years, and giving up now would be a betrayal of their sacrifices. We must continue supporting Ukraine's fight for freedom and territorial integrity.” - Olena K.

“It's time to face reality. The war has dragged on for too long, costing countless lives and destabilizing the global economy. If a peace deal can be reached, even with some concessions, it's worth considering for the sake of ending the bloodshed and moving towards reconstruction.” - Michael R.

These opposing perspectives highlight the complex emotions surrounding the potential resolution of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Today, we’ll keep these diverse viewpoints in mind while we delve deeper into the market implications.

Your Rundown for Wednesday, February 19, 2025...

Thawing Assets: Russian ETFs in the Spotlight

The Ukraine-Russia situation is barreling toward a resolution, possibly accelerated by President Trump’s direct line to Putin.

Get ready, because Ukraine’s potential surrender could inject some serious energy into the stock market, hinting at exciting economic possibilities in the region.

Think about Russian ETFs, frozen solid by Western sanctions…

Back in 2022, around $6 billion in Russia-exposed assets were stuck in limbo, creating a tough spot for asset managers.

Now, with the possibility of sanctions being lifted, U.S. investors are eyeing a potential surge of interest in those previously sidelined Russian ETFs.

Keep a close watch on names like the VanEck Russia ETF (RSX) and the iShares MSCI Russia Capped ETF (ERUS) — they could be gearing up for a comeback.

But keep in mind, untangling this situation and getting back to normal trading won't be a simple task.

Here’s the deal: Even if Russian markets swing open their doors, sanctions have created roadblocks for ETFs trying to buy or sell certain Russian assets.

It adds an extra layer of complexity to the situation.

The big picture for the U.S. stock market? It's looking bright!

A resolution could bring much-needed stability and open up fresh investment opportunities, especially in sectors tied to rebuilding Ukraine.

Key sectors to watch:

  • Energy: Expect some movement as prices try to find their footing and supply chains get back on track.
  • Industrials: Potential gains as those disrupted supply chains start humming again.
  • Infrastructure: Keep an eye on this sector for growth opportunities tied to reconstruction efforts.

As we get closer to February 24, 2025 — the date we believe a ceasefire will be announced — expect market activity to pick up.

While the idea of peace brings hope for economic recovery, remember that things are still evolving. It’ll take time to normalize economic relations with Ukraine and Russia.

Smart investors should be on the lookout for any signs of sanctions easing — it could lead to significant opportunities.

Market Rundown for Wednesday, Feb. 19, 2025

S&P 500 futures are down 0.20% to 6,135.

Oil is up 1% to $72.62 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up 0.30% to $2,958.40 per ounce.

And Bitcoin’s up 2.45% to $96,380.

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