Michael Moore, the liberal filmmaker known for his political predictions, claims that Donald Trump's chances of winning are “toast” and that Vice President Kamala Harris is poised for victory.

Moore's assertion, however, should be viewed with healthy skepticism.

His prediction of Harris' win is based on what he calls “an aggregate of top polls” and his personal observations of everyday Americans.

Yeah, about those top polls…

Nothing should revoke Moore’s “man of the people” status faster than this quote at his Substack account:

• “Right now, if you know how to really read the polls, or if you have access to the various private and internal polling being conducted by and shared only amongst the elites, Wall Street, and Members of Congress, then you already know that this election was over weeks ago,” Moore writes.

From his statement, one has to assume Moore himself has access to these polls “shared only amongst the elites.”

If it walks like a duck, right?

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Your Rundown for Friday, October 11, 2024...

The Only Polls That Matter

But let’s take a look at how Trump’s goose is cooked, according to Moore…

Where’s the super-secret polling for elite eyes only?

Even a casual glance at the map tells you Moore’s evidence for Harris’ “path to victory” lands with a whimper, not a bang: an incredibly slim 270-268 Electoral College margin.

Notice, too, the map shows Pennsylvania and Virginia voting Democrat.

Paradigm’s Beltway authority Jim Rickards, however, has made a compelling case that both states could vote Republican in 2024.

As for Moore’s statement about accurately reading polls, last month, we examined how they are conducted and how to read polls.

But Jim recently brought up other polling variables you should take into consideration — namely, how pollsters sample adults, registered voters and likely voters.

As the election approaches, pollsters should be shifting their focus from surveying adults and registered voters to targeting likely voters.

Polls of likely voters can yield more accurate results, producing results that differ significantly from other polling samples, particularly in close races.

Historically speaking, we add, likely voters-only polls have tended to favor Republican candidates slightly more than polls that sample adults and registered voters.

So the next time you encounter a poll, be sure to read the fine print.

(Since Moore’s poll comes from an aggregate of numerous national polls, it’s impossible to comb through any footnotes, by the way.)

But at this stage of the game, the most reliable polls depend on how accurately they predict voter turnout.

Market Rundown for Friday, Oct. 11, 2024

S&P 500 futures are slightly in the red at 5,825.

Oil is down 0.75% to $75.27 for a barrel of WTI.

Gold is up about 1% to $2,665.10 per ounce.

And Bitcoin is up 3% to $61,375 at the time of writing.

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